Elliott Bignell
1 min readMar 12, 2024

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It may be worth noting that Germany, Italy and Japan are also export powerhouses. Germany's annual exports are equal to two-thirds that of the entire US economy, and more than half that of China. Italy and Japan come in at about half the figure for Germany, but on a per capita basis that is still extremely respectable.

All mature economies that partake of the international trade norm have a per capita growth rate of about 1%. Everything above that is due to demographic growth. The USA has done well in recent decades because it has sustained higher immigration. The ultimate fate of all marketised economies, however, is demographic stagnation and long-term recession. Economies that open up usually exhibit a huge growth spurt and eventually equilibrate somewhere near the Western norm of prosperity.

Nor it this in any way a bad thing. Getting 1% better off every year would be fine, if it were spread evenly. In fact, just remaining the same every year must be the ultimate equilibrium state sought, as there are Limits to Growth which cannot be cheated.

We have, sooner rather than later, to learn to manage degrowth. It is a physical certainty within a finite physical environment that is already on the brink of failure. Something is badly amiss with an economic orthodoxy that demands constant exponential growth.

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Elliott Bignell

Software engineer, photographer, cook, bedroom guitarist and karateka